Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-01-01T13:21:03

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has seen diurnal fluctuations between background and moderate. Flux is likely to drop out to mainly background with the onset of the fast wind of CH86, before increasing to Moderate from day 3 (03 Jan) with an increasing chance of peaking at High by day 4 (04 Jan).

Electron fluence is expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but likely with a gradually increasing trend from day 3 (02 Jan) as a result of the fast wind onset. This is in line with REFM which is currently giving good guidance.