Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-12-02T13:22:23

Electron flux has fallen to Background levels following the arrival of recent CMEs ion the 01 December. Some recovery of flux to Moderate or High levels at diurnal peak is possible during day 2 (03 Dec), only to likely decrease to Background levels again as geomagnetic activity increases into Day 3 and 4 (04-05 Dec) with the arrival of the HSS from CH76/- and possible CME influences on Day 4 (05 Dec)

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), as supported by REFM. However, a rising trend is likely from day 2 onward, once any CME influence recedes with a slight chance of exceeding the Active threshold into day 3 (04 Dec).