Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-12-09T12:07:54

The influence from CH76/- has waned, meaning electron flux levels should plateau near current values over the coming UTC weekend, likely falling narrowly short of Active 24-hour integrated fluence. There is then likely to be suppression at GEO under the increase in geomagnetic activity arising from a likely second fast wind (from CH77/+), and perhaps also the glancing influence of 07 December CME.

A gradual recovery should then ensue into the new working week as likely brief geomagnetic activity wanes, although there is the question mark of any further influence from small CH80/+ which may further delay increases at GEO. All considered, coronal holes in the period are considered relatively modest in stature, and the likelihood is that fluence levels remain below Active for the duration.

MOSWOC REFM maintains fluence below 1e8 through the next 72 hours, and persistence shows a precipitous drop, although neither is felt to offer a good handle on upcoming conditions given the possible presence of a CME.