MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-02-05T13:21:42
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been mostly at background levels. Any CME or HSS effects during this period are most likely to be fairly weak, and lack impetus for a significant increase in electron flux.
Overall, the electron fluence is expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated flux) threshold, as suggested by MOSWOC's REFM, which is considered to be an overall good guide at present.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-02-05T13:21:42 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |