MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-21T01:10:44
Electron flux levels are expected to continue in a similar vein to the UTC weekend at first, having likely reached a steady state in varying between Normal Background and Moderate flux levels.
Following the arrival of the 16/0100UTC weak CME, flux levels at GEO may be briefly suppressed, with this effect probably sustained by any fast wind from CH73 arriving Day 1 (21 Nov), before a late-week (UTC) increase to a peak Chance of Active fluence.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-11-21T01:10:44 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |