Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-09-22T00:24:30

High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux levels have recently been varying between Moderate and High levels. This is likely to become suppressed later on Day 1 (22 Sep) as geomagnetic activity increases in response to the arrival of coronal hole fast winds and possible glancing CME influences. A return to high levels is possible later on Day 3 and Day 4 (24 and 25 Sep). 
The 24-hour electron fluence is currently below the Active threshold and is likely to remain at this level, with the current MOSWOC REFM output forecast providing reasonable guidance. However a rising trend is likely later in the period, giving a chance of Active fluence levels.