MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-06T00:26:41
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES16 has been cycling between moderate and background levels over the last 24 hours. These are then likely to drop to mainly background due to the effects of the CME, but with then a gradual increase possible due to the input of electrons into the belts, with an increasing chance of reaching high levels later in the period.
Electron fluence is forecast to be mainly at background levels but with an upward trend possible towards the end of the period as the effects of the electrons take effect.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-10-06T00:26:41 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |