Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-23T00:11:28

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to persist at mainly background levels for the next few days. Any enhancement due to CH17/- is likely to occur into the new working week (UTC), with the flux increasing to Moderate levels, and perhaps reaching High (greater than 1000 pfu) during diurnal maxima.

The associated electron fluence is currently well below the Active threshold on a level trend, and is expected to remain as such given the lack of solar features to cause any increase until CH17. Even with this feature arriving into the new week, the chances of exceeding the Active fluence threshold are considered Slight, perhaps 10% by day four which is similar to that offered by the MOSWOC recurrence-persistence model. REFM's three-day forecast also remains unmoved to add weight to the muted forecast response.