MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-22T00:05:27
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to persist at mainly background levels, in the absence of CH15. Any enhancement due to CH17/- is likely to occur during Day 4 (25 Jan), with the flux increasing to moderate levels.
The associated electron fluence is currently well below the Active threshold, and is expected to remain at this level, although likely with an increasing trend during day 4 (25th). The 3-day REFM forecast supports this trend, and fluence remained below Active levels on the last rotation.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-01-22T00:05:27 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |