Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-29T00:18:39

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is starting above the high threshold, and is expected to continue to decrease to moderate levels at times tomorrow (30th). A sharp decline in the high energy electron flux is then expected during day 3 (31st) due to an increase in geomagnetic activity.

The corresponding electron fluence values are expected to remain above the Active threshold today and tomorrow, then decrease below during day 3 (31st). Therefore a slower decline to below the Active threshold is expected, compared to the Met Office REFM model.