MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-28T00:01:00
Elevated solar wind speeds have led to an increase in the High Energy Electron flux (greater than 2MeV) just above 1000pfu. A further rise is possible on Day 1 (28th) and Day 2 (29th), followed by a slow decline on Day 3 (30th) and Day 4 (31st). The 24-hour integrated electron fluence is showing a rising trend and likely to reach the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold on day 1 (28th) and perhaps on day 2 (29th). A decreasing trend is likely thereafter.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-01-28T00:01:00 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 60% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |