Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-21T00:03:16

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background levels, and expected to persist at these levels for much of Day 1 (21 Jan). There a slight chance of some muted enhancement later on Day 1 and into Days 2-4 (22-24 Jan), with peak flux values perhaps reaching the 1000pfu alert level during the diurnal maxima. This would be due to any solar wind enhancement that occurs from the fast wind of CH15/+. Any enhancement due to CH17/- is likely to occur after Day 4 (24 Jan).

The associated electron fluence is currently well below the Active threshold, and is expected to remain at this level, although likely with an increasing trend. The 3-day REFM forecast supports this trend, and fluence remained below Active levels on the last rotation.