Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-02-20T00:30:05

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, is currently at background levels. This is expected to increase during the coming days, likely exceeding high day 2 (21st) and potentially persisting at this level thereafter. This is due to Earth connecting to the fast wind of coronal hole 27, which has arrived earlier than was anticipated. The negative polarity, along with the approaching solar equinox, and also the persistence of the hole, suggest a strong and electron rich connection is likely. This is expected to become observable at GEO, once any initial compression of the outer Van Allen belt subsides, most probably later on day 1 (20th).

The associated 24 hour electron fluence will therefore rise, and is likely to reach the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold by the end of day 2 (21st). There is a slight chance of electron populations being sufficient for the very Active threshold to be reached at some point later in the period, however this is uncertain at this stage.