MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-02-19T00:00:48
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to persist at mainly background levels until day 3, with electron fluence remaining below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. A sharp rise is then expected on day 4 (22nd) following the onset of the high speed stream, bringing the flux to Moderate or even High (greater than 1000 pfu) levels.
The associated electron fluence is currently well below the Active threshold, on a level trend, and is expected to remain as such until the arrival of the HSS originating from CH27. An increasing trend should follow on day 4 (22nd) but the chances of exceeding the Active fluence threshold are considered slight. This is confirmed by the recurrence-persistence model and the latest REFM output, both showing very low figures.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-02-19T00:00:48 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |