Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-02-12T00:05:09

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) levels are expected to oscillate slowly between moderate and background levels, initially due to an ambient solar wind.  The onset of a coronal hole high speed stream through tomorrow may result in a minor displacement of the radiation belts, and of the electrons within them, due both to the geomagnetic activity and the strength of the high speed stream, with levels reducing to background values. Levels are then likely to start recovering through day 4 as geomagnetic activity becomes less marked, but with the High threshold (1000 pfu) possibly temporarily being reached at the peak of the diurnal cycle.

24-hour integrated fluence values are forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated fluence) values, despite an initial slight rising trend and also a rising trend likely through day 4.