MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-03-14T00:02:20
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to increase to moderate and perhaps reach high levels at the peak of the diurnal cycle, but this is likely to be brief and not long enough to be able to bring the fluence close to the Active threshold.
The corresponding fluence is expected to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout this period. This confirmed by the latest REFM output and 27-day recurrence.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-03-14T00:02:20 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |