MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-03-13T00:08:57
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at mostly low to moderate levels today and tomorrow, possibly temporarily reaching High levels at the peak of the diurnal cycle today. From day 3 (15th) the high energy electron flux levels are expected to increase moderate to high.
The corresponding fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) today and tomorrow (14th), but with an increasing trend later tomorrow due to the influence of the high speed stream from CH32. Then from day 3 (15th) there is an increasing chance of the fluence reaching the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-03-13T00:08:57 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 1% |