Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-02-11T00:07:21

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently at predominantly background levels, occasionally reaching moderate. The flux has the potential to increase slightly through days 1 and 2 (11th and 12th), reaching moderate levels more frequently, as the now reduced solar wind speed my allow for restoration of the outer Van Allen Belt - this may have been compressed inward due to the recent solar wind enhancement. Any increased in electron count rate is expected to subside day 3 onward (13th).

Despite the potential for a slight increase in the flux, it is unlikely that this will reach Active (1e8 integrated pfu). This is supported by REFM which maintains low values through to T+24, before rising. The extent of the increase indicated beyond T+24, however is low confidence and likely to be over-estimated.