Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-12T00:18:18

The high energy electron flux as observed by GOES-16 (greater than 2 MeV) is currently at background levels. Recent solar wind enhancements are likely to increase the electron count through day 1, leading to moderate levels, perhaps peaking at high values later day 1 (12th) and day 2 (13th). Solar winds are expected to ease day 1, with peak electron fluxes likely declining day 3 onward.

The associated fluence is currently below the Active threshold, but is likely to see an increasing trend through day 1 and into day 2. There is a slight chance of reaching the Active threshold, mainly day 2 and into day 3 (14th). This increasing trend is currently not in REFM, as it is unaware of the recent enhancement to solar wind conditions on the 11th, and hence should be disregarded for now.