Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-05T00:28:38

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at GEO is expected to remain at mainly background or moderate levels through day 1 (05 January), with these expected to be further dampened by geomagnetic enhancements following CME and coronal hole high speed stream arrivals. An increase is then forecast from day 2 (06 January) onward, mainly due to the high speed stream, with high (1e3 pfu) levels increasingly likely on diurnal peaks.

Corresponding 24 hour fluence values are forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level through much of the period, but with an increasing likelihood of exceeding this threshold from day 2, due to rising flux levels.