Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-04T00:21:02

The high energy (greater than 2eV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, is expected to remain mostly at background to moderate days 1 and 2 (4th and 5th). Any geomagnetic enhancements from the arrival of the fast wind of CH11 or the anticipated CME arrival could further dampen electron on the 5th. However, flux levels have the potential to increase days 3 and 4 due to the enhanced solar wind environment, with a chance of reaching high values during diurnal peak.

The associated 24 hour fluence values are forecast to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) through much of the period, but with a slight chance of reaching this threshold by the end of the period.