MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-03T00:12:55
High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) has been varying between moderate and background levels with a slow decline in diurnal peaks. This trend is expected to continue through days 1 to 3 (3rd-5th), with the arrival of the fast wind of CH11 and CH12, alongside any potential CME arrival then enhancement flux levels on day 4 (6th).
The associated 24-hour fluence values are forecast to stay at background through the period, as supported by REFM, but with a chance of increasing day 4, and a slight chance of reaching the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold by the end of the period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-01-03T00:12:55 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |