Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-12-04T00:33:13

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is likely to be mainly below the high alert threshold (1e3pfu) with solar winds expected to be at or close to background levels. There is a small chance that the electron flux could very briefly rise above the high threshold on diurnal peaks, but the flux is forecast to be at mainly moderate or background levels.

Corresponding electron fluence values are below the Active threshold, and expected to stay that way over the next few days. The rising trend shown in the REFM model is due to persistence related to a coronal hole high speed stream on the last rotation, which is not present on this rotation.

However, if a CME does arrive later today or early tomorrow this could lead to a rising electron fluence trend.