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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-11-04T00:08:18

With solar wind speeds currently below 350 km/s, high energy electron counts are expected to return to background values through day 1 (4th), although further enhancements to moderate levels can't be ruled out, especially from late day 2, when the near Earth environment may come under weak negative coronal hole influences. However, the associated 24 hour integrated fluence is expected to remain well below the active threshold, albeit with a possible increasing trend later in the period.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2020-11-04T00:08:18
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 1% 1%
Day 2 1% 1%
Day 3 5% 1%
Day 4 10% 1%