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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-11-05T00:00:28

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is at moderate levels (greater than 2MeV) and is expected to generally stay at moderate to background levels through the next four days. There is however a chance of reaching high levels on diurnal peaks later in the period, following potential connection to a high speed stream from coronal hole 92.

Corresponding 24 hour fluence levels are forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but perhaps with an upward trend between days 2 to 4 if connection to high speed stream from coronal hole 92 occurs.

 


 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2020-11-05T00:00:28
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 1% 1%
Day 2 5% 1%
Day 3 10% 1%
Day 4 10% 1%