Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-10-06T00:01:47

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 has been at persistently high levels for a number of days, with the highest peak value observed on 05 Oct at 42700 pfu. However the flux has now dropped below the High threshold for the first time in a week. Electron flux levels are expected to continue to reach High levels at the diurnal maximum through the next four days, but with a very slowly declining trend.

The associated observed 24 hour fluence has been Very Active since 30/2100 UTC, peaking on 05/1500 UTC at 1.62e9 integrated pfu. With flux levels expected to slowly fall, the fluence levels should also gradually reduce. The timing of this reduction is open to some uncertainty, but most probably falling below the Very Active threshold on Days 3 or 4 (08 or 09 Oct). It is most likely to stay above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout. This downward trend is supported by REFM, but it is currently underestimating fluence levels and as such is likely to lower values below the Active threshold much too soon.