MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-10-07T00:19:10
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16, has remained below the high threshold of 1000 pfu over the last 24 hours. This followed a period of sustained magnetic field enhancement, likely due to the passing of a magnetic cloud. As the magnetic field subsides, observed electron flux levels are anticipated to rise above the high threshold during the diurnal maximum on each day, especially from day 2 (8 Oct) onwards.
The associated 24 hour fluence has rapidly declined from Very Active (1.19e9 integrated pfu at 06/0000 UTC) to below the Active level by 06/1800UTC. The Met Office REFM output indicates a further decline and this guidance is accepted.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-10-07T00:19:10 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |