Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-09-07T00:01:08

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently exhibiting an oscillation in the bottom end of High flux, having shown a slight increase over the UTC weekend. The expected trend from here is downwards however, with the timing of exit from Active 24-hour fluence relatively low confidence, but odds on to occur before midweek.

REFM and the recurrence-persistence model are both suggesting the above to be the case, with this standpoint and the associated probabilities considered sensible and therefore adopted.