MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-09-14T00:03:52
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux proved relatively volatile through the UTC day of Sunday, with increased geomagnetic activity into the evening attenuating the diurnal peak.
The 24-hour integrated fluence is now felt to be sufficiently low that even given a slight rebound in flux counts in the wake of the current possible CIR-driven influence, the Active threshold ought to not be exceeded. The flux itself is likely to resume its previous diurnal oscillation between Moderate and High flux - once current geomagnetic activity subsides.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-09-14T00:03:52 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |