MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-09-21T00:29:35
High energy electron flux levels (greater than 2MeV) are expected to be at moderate or background levels through much of the period. There may be a slight increase on day 4, depending on the timing of the onset of the CH HSS from CH81/+. This increase however is likely to be offset by the strength of the solar wind distorting the radiation belts, and the associated increase in geomagnetic activity displacing the electrons.
Consequently, 24-hour electron fluence is forecast to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-09-21T00:29:35 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |