Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-09-27T12:03:06

The flux fell early yesterday afternoon below the Alert threshold, but not by much, then it rose above the Alert threshold this morning from a high base, suggesting strengthening fluence levels over the next few days. The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is forecast to exceed the high threshold during diurnal maxima for much of the period. The corresponding fluence is forecast to be above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level during the next four-days, with a chance of Very Active levels being reached. This is before the influence of coronal hole 82 mid period, which may lead to higher fluence levels on Day 4 and beyond. The REFM forecast model suggests a rising trend above Very Active, while the recurrence gets close to Very Active.