Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-09-27T00:08:51

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is forecast to exceed the high threshold with increasing regularity through the period. Electron fluence values are forecast to return back above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level during the next 24 hours, as indicated by the Met Office REF model, with an increasing chance of Very Active levels being reached. The only caveat is the possibility that the high speed stream may occasionally compress the magnetopause, and so occasionally reduce flux levels, as has probably occurred in recent hours.

27-day recurrence suggests fluence to be above the Active (1e8) level through the period, with a chance of reaching very Active (1e9 pfu).