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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-09-26T00:15:56

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to breach the high (1e3pfu) level with increasing regularity through the forecast period. This may temporarily fall to background levels at times following any significant geomagnetic enhancements, but due to the strength of the high speed stream, should return to high levels quickly after any such activity.

Electron fluence values are expected to remain above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level, with a slight but increasing chance of Very Active levels being reached.

 

 



 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2020-09-26T00:15:56
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 90% 5%
Day 2 100% 10%
Day 3 100% 10%
Day 4 100% 20%