Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-08-27T00:28:00

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is likely to remain at mainly background to moderate levels through the forecast period, with some reductions due to any significant geomagnetic enhancements. The forecast increase in speeds is expected to input more electrons into the radiation belts, but the high speed stream is likely to displace the peak of the electrons away from GOES-16 at GEO and therefore not show in observations.  The likelihood is that any significant increases would then be registered after the end of the forecast period as solar wind speeds subside.

MOSWOC REFM model forecasts of the 24-hour electron fluence demonstrate a rising trend over the next 4 days. While a rising trend is likely, the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold is not expected to be exceeded until beyond the end of the current forecast period.