MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-08-20T00:20:14
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is likely to continue to be near background levels through today and tomorrow, but with the expected arrival of a CME and high speed stream the electron flux level is expected to increase during days 3 and 4, possibly above the 1000 pfu threshold at the diurnal peak. However, the associated 24-hour fluence will remain below the Active threshold. The REFM forecast model, and the 27-day recurrence, both support the forecast of the fluence remaining well below the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-08-20T00:20:14 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |