Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-08-19T00:15:12

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is likely to continue to be near background levels for much of today and tomorrow, then increasing to more general moderate levels from day 3 onward due to the potential arrival of a CME but also HSS influences. These HSS may occur from CH67 today, but more likely from CH69 from tomorrow onwards. The HSS influence, combined with the potential arrival of a CME, is expected to increase the flux levels to become generally moderate from day 3 (21st) onward. This in turn may increase fluence levels on Day 3 and 4, but confidence is low regarding this. The REFM forecast model, and the 27-day recurrence, both support the forecast of the fluence remaining well below the Active threshold.