MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-09-18T00:01:35
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) in the outer Van Allen belt is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu Alert threshold throughout, with the associated 24-hour fluence staying below the Active threshold throughout (1e8 integrated pfu). This is supported by the REFM 3-day forecast and the 27-day recurrence, which both strongly indicate that the low trend will continue.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-09-18T00:01:35 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |