Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-09-11T00:14:05

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently reaching high (1e3 pfu) levels on diurnal peaks, falling to moderate at the minima. Electron flux levels are likely to show a gradual decline in magnitude over the period, but still with the diuarnal peaks reaching High levels most days.

24 hour electron fluence is also showing a gradual decline. A fall below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold is expected although the exact timing is low confidence. The most likely timing is during Day 2 (12th Sep). Both the REFM model and the recurrence-persistence model indicate a falling trend, although they are suggesting a more rapid fall than is likely to occur.