Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-09-12T00:05:49

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) will exceed the High (1000 pfu) threshold during the diurnal maxima today and tomorrow, and possibly during day 3, albeit with a declining trend.

The corresponding 24-hour fluence will start above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, and is expected to remain above the Active threshold until day 2, perhaps taking until day 3 to fall below. The Met Office REFM is not offering good guidance, as it is currently showing fluence values below the Active threshold, rather than above the threshold as observed.

The probabilities issued here are above those given in the recurrence persistence model, which only has a 51% chance of the Active threshold being reached for today.