Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-09-13T00:02:45

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) has regularly exceeded the 1000 pfu alert level during the diurnal cycle through September. However, the trend is now clearly downwards and with no significant increase in solar wind speeds expected we are likely to see a continued fall, albeit erratic at times. 

The overall trend in fluence is expected to be downwards, with the current solar wind conditions unlikely to be supportive of such high electron populations in the long-term. We are not expecting the 1e8 warning level to be exceeded through the period.