MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-08-14T00:00:41
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 was at normal background to moderate levels, with a diurnal peak of 740pfu at 13/1555UTC. A similar diurnal oscillation is likely over the next few days, but with a gradual downward trend in peak values anticipated.
Fluence levels have slowly decreased and are comfortably below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). A further gradual downward trend is expected through the period, likely more gentle than indicated by REFM.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-08-14T00:00:41 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |