MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-08-15T00:24:21
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 was at Normal Background to Moderate levels, with a diurnal peak of 796pfu at 14/1620 UTC. A similar diurnal oscillation is likely over the next few days.
24-hour integrated fluence levels are comfortably below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), and are expected to remain so throughout, with a probable slow decline likely, although not as rapid as currently suggested by the Met Office REFM output.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-08-15T00:24:21 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |