MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-08-08T00:02:02
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is varying diurnally between moderate and high levels. This trend is expected to continue through days 1 and perhaps day 2, although with gradually reducing peak values, with flux likely to remain below the high threshold (1e3 pfu) from day 3 onward.
24-hour fluence values, initially above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, are expected to slowly decline through the period, and should return to background levels by either day 2 or 3 (9 or 10 Aug).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-08-08T00:02:02 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 90% | 5% |
| Day 2 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |