MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-08-01T00:05:42
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is diurnally cycling between background and moderate levels and is expected to continue in this pattern through today and much of tomorrow. From late tomorrow, and especially during days 3 and 4 (03 and 04 Aug) the flux levels are expected to increase slightly, with a chance of the flux coming close to the High threshold during the peak of the diurnal cycles, in response to the connection with the high speed stream from coronal hole 64. This is a low probability though, given the lack of electron response observed on the previous rotation.
Corresponding electron fluence values are well below the Active threshold and are expected to remain so, albiet with a slight rising trend during Days 3 and 4, which is in line with REFM expectations.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-08-01T00:05:42 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |