Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-08-02T00:04:00

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is liekly to rise in response to the arrival of the fast wind of coronal hole 64, with the high speed stream currently expected on Sunday 02 August. This is a persistent and now-intensified coronal hole, and a stronger connection is expected to this feature when compared to the previous rotation. As a result, flux levels are expected to rise, likely exceeding the High flux (1000 pfu) by the end of Monday 03 August (day two).

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence values are currently well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) and forecast to remain below this level until at least Monday, whereupon they will rise in response to the elevated solar winds. This will lead to a slight chance of reaching Active, probably peaking on day three once interrupting geomagnetic activity begins to wane. REFM does have a slight increasing trend through the forecast period, however this is largely based upon persistence from the previous rotation.