Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-09-01T00:07:29

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux observed by GOES-16 has been varying between high levels (greater than 1000pfu) and background, due to both the diurnal variation, but also likely due observed geomagnetic activity.  Whilst further geomagnetic activity is anticipated day on day 1, high flux levels are likely to become prevalent by day 2, with a slight chance of increasing to very high levels.  With no further solar wind enhancements forecast, these high to very high levels are then expected to persist.

The associated 24 hour fluence has remained below the Active threshold, despite the prolonged periods of high flux. This fluence is anticipated to increase day 1 and into day 2 however, as geomagnetic activity subsides, becoming persistently Active (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu). This is supported by REFM, although this is currently over-estimated the current speed of increase.