Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-08-31T00:24:57

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 has recently been high (greater than 1000pfu) due to the ongoing elevated solar winds, that were initially enhanced by the arrival of the fast wind of CH72 and 74 on the 28th, but recently fell due to some geomagnetic enhancement.

High flux is expected to continue for much of the period, although there is the potential for the forecast geomagnetic activity from CH75 later on day 1 (31st) and early day 2 (1st) to suppress values to near background for a time. Once this has passed high flux levels are anticipated to return, with the potential to reach very high values. However confidence does reduce beyond day 3, due to the uncertainty regarding the extent of the connection to CH75.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence, was close to Active (1e8 integrated pfu) at time of issue, and is likely to rise further to be above this level, albeit with confidence decreasing for this to be maintained. This rise above supported by REFM, although this is likely assuming persistent strong winds similar to the previous rotation which have yet to be observed. There is a slight chance for Very Active (greater than 1e9 integrated pfu) levels to be reached by day 4 (3rd).