Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-08-30T00:05:54

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) reached very close to High levels today. With the current elevated solar wind speeds, the electron flux is expected to increase further bringing periods of high flux (greater than 1000 pfu) on Day 1 (30 Aug) and into Day 2 (31 Aug). Any geomagnetic activity from the anticipated connection to CH75 on Day 2 may temporarily subdue flux levels, before the continuation of elevated solar winds on Day 3 (01 Sep) will likely increase flux once again into Day 4 (02 Sep)

On the previous rotation a strong and persistent enhancement to solar winds was observed, and it took a couple of days from onset before persistently high electron levels also were observed. The source coronal holes for the enhancement are much changed compared to the previous rotation, however, and in addition our starting point of electron flux is higher than on the last rotation. 

The associated 24 hour fluence is likely to rise, probably above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold on Days 1 and 2 (30 and 31 Aug). Despite a brief decrease in flux on Day 2 from any geomagnetic activity, Active fluence is likely to continue through Days 3 and 4 (01 and 02 Sep).

Both REFM and the recurrence-persistence model are indicating the possibility of a rise in electron fluence, however they may be giving the right indication for the wrong reasons. This is due to the differences in solar wind speed evolution from the last rotation, and in particular due to the current elevated wind speeds and increased electron flux which did not occur on the last rotation. As such the detail in these models should be treated with caution.