MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-08-29T00:18:55
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) will start at background to moderate levels and are likely to reach high levels during the diurnal cycle from Day 2 or Day 3 (30-31 Aug). Corresponding fluence currently well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but with a rising trend on Day 2 or 3 (29th-30th), and an increasing chance of breaching the threshold from Day 3 (31 Aug).
Met Office REFM output shows a rising trend over the next few days. There is an increasing chance of rising above the active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold from Day 3 (31 Aug) due to predicted enhancements in solar winds over the next few days - this energising the Van Allen belts. The 27-day recurrence has a rising trend in the fluence on Day 3, and rising above the threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) on Day 4 (1 Sep).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-08-29T00:18:55 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 70% | 5% |