Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-09-05T00:02:16

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to broadly maintain its current diurnal oscillation above the High (1000 pfu) level in the near-term. The day-on-day trend should be gradually downwards following the recent connection with the high speed stream from coronal hole 75. Active 24-hour integrated fluence is expected to continue through the period until around the middle of next week, particularly since the peak in fluence has been higher than on the previous rotation.

This expected trend is reflected in current REFM output, albeit the model is perhaps a little fast in its tendency.